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The 2021 MOTUL FIM Superbike World Championship is off and running at round five of the season at the TT Circuit Assen in the Netherlands, as the Prosecco DOC Dutch Round promises more electrifying action. An unpredictably close opening day saw 13 riders covered by less than a second and all five manufacturers represented inside the top five positions. However, one question remains: speed or pace? One lap is all well and good, but a strong and consistence race pace will put you in a prime position for glory. Who is red hot, who is not and who is looking at what the opposition has got? The Friday race pace analysis suggests many things, and that one rider in particular is sparkling.

IN CONTROL: Rea’s astonishing pace

Jonathan Rea’s race pace is arguably the most impressive, and perhaps the scariest if you’re his opposition. The Ulsterman set a stunning 17 laps in the 1’34 bracket during the afternoon at Assen, resulting in a 1’34.824 as his average lap time. Confirmation that he has used what he dubbed as the ‘new generation’ X tyre, Rea’s pace was strong right from the start of FP2, in comparison to his rivals who were only really on his level at the very end of the session. Nonetheless, whilst it looks close, Rea’s string of lap times make him the favourite, as his quest for a 13^th Assen win takes a step closer to reality.

NEVER SAY NEVER: bringing the fight

Rea’s closest rival was Garrett Gerloff (GRT Yamaha WorldSBK Team), not just in terms of the lap time in FP2 but also in terms of race pace. The American, who signed a new deal with Yamaha for 2022, didn’t have the longevity of Rea’s pace but if you look at his final run, he’s right there. Six consecutive laps under the 1’34.9 bracket – something Rea couldn’t manage across his own stunning runs – meant Gerloff’s average lap time is under the 1’34.6 bracket, which is staggering considering it is his first time at Assen in WorldSBK.

Ducati’s race pace is difficult to read, particularly for Scott Redding (Aruba.it Racing – Ducati), as he set only two 1’34s in the afternoon. So, it’s to the morning pace for the 2020 runner-up, where he managed six 1’34s although only three were as part of a sequence. Either way, his average lap time works out at a 1’35.000 exactly, so he’s not too far away. Nonetheless, there will be work to do in the afternoon sessions across the board, as Michael Ruben Rinaldi (Aruba.it Racing – Ducati) only managed one 1’34.9 in the afternoon, whilst Chaz Davies (Team GoEleven) only managed a 1’35.5 in the afternoon, six tenths off his morning time.

STILL IN CONTENTION: Sykes, Bautista and Razgatlioglu

One rider who is quietly going about his business so far at Assen is Tom Sykes (BMW Motorrad WorldSBK Team), as the 2013 WorldSBK Champion set three 1’34s in his afternoon session as well as consistently low-to-mid 1’35s. His average lap time sees him at a 1’35.037 and when you combine that with the fact that he was able to be fastest through sectors two and four, it might just be his time to shine at the venue he took his last race win, back in 2018 for Kawasaki.

Like Gerloff, Alvaro Bautista (Team HRC) also looked good come the end of the session with his last run, although it only featured one 1’34 and a handful of 1‘35s. Importantly though is that Bautista’s historic ability to continue to build throughout the weekend and whilst there’s been a “good step forward”, he believes there’s still plenty of potential to be unleashed. The main thing for Bautista is also that some confidence has returned to him in the afternoon, crucial for the fast and flowing nature of Assen.

Finally, Championship leader Toprak Razgatlioglu (Pata Yamaha with BRIXX WorldSBK), who is in touch but not quite as dominant as he was at Donington Park. The Turkish rider managed four 1’34s but was otherwise a little bit more inconsistent in the 1’35s. Regardless, it is a strong showing from Razgatlioglu from his first appearance at Assen in WorldSBK on a Yamaha, as well having the potential to improve. His fastest lap of a 1’34.755 left him 0.364s behind Rea’s fastest time, so there’s still time to find for Razgatlioglu and his side of the Yamaha team.

EXTERNAL FACTORS: looming large

It really may be a case of making hay whilst the sun shines as rain is forecast… but not until Sunday. Earlier forecasts suggested Saturday may be a mixed day but now, it is looking dry whilst Sunday has thunderstorms in the area. Therefore, what’s analysed after Friday could be out the window by Sunday morning. There’s also the never-ending conversation about tyres, with Pirelli bringing new solutions – including a returning ‘new’ SCX solution, just add another dynamic into the mix; read more about Pirelli’s new compounds here.

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